As communities in central Texas begin to recover from historic flash floods that struck during the July 4th holiday weekend, grief is being matched by growing outrage. At least 82 lives have been lost, including 28 children, and dozens remain missing. But beyond the staggering death toll, attention is now turning to a difficult question: could this have been prevented?
One site in particular has become the emotional epicenter of the disaster. In Kerr County, at a private Christian retreat called Camp Mystic, the Guadalupe River rose so quickly it swallowed cabins, dining halls, and dormitories without warning. Officials say 68 bodies were recovered there alone. A camp counselor and ten girls are still unaccounted for.
No evacuation order had been issued for the area. When pressed, local officials struggled to explain why. “I can’t answer that. I don’t know,” Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said during a press briefing.
Years of staffing cuts left weather offices vulnerable
Federal agencies charged with forecasting and emergency preparedness are now facing scrutiny over their role in the tragedy. According to internal reporting and union sources, key forecasting centers in Texas — including the San Antonio and San Angelo offices of the National Weather Service (NWS) — were operating with major vacancies at the time of the storm. These included the loss of senior hydrologists and warning coordination meteorologists, roles vital to issuing timely flood alerts.
Staffing shortfalls in these agencies, some say, stem from cost-cutting initiatives introduced during the first Trump administration and further expanded under his second term. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a program long backed by Elon Musk, reportedly offered early retirement packages to dozens of experienced personnel. Among them was the lead warning coordinator in San Antonio, who stepped down just weeks before the storm.
“It’s impossible to say what difference one person might have made,” said Tom Fahy, legislative director for the NWS Employees Organization. “But it’s clear these roles exist for a reason.”
The implications became national news after Grok — an AI chatbot developed by Elon Musk’s X platform — responded to a viral question about the floods. When asked whether Trump’s NOAA and NWS cuts contributed to the deaths, the bot simply replied: “Yes.” Grok later added that reductions “delayed warnings and underestimated rainfall by 50%,” and even named DOGE, Musk’s government efficiency project, as part of the cause.
The response went viral — and polarized. Some users were stunned by the directness. Others accused the chatbot of spreading blame without nuance. Musk, for his part, has not commented on the disaster, instead using his platform to promote the launch of his “America Party” and to complain that Grok is “getting too woke.”
Meanwhile, former President Trump has declared a federal disaster for the affected region and promised to visit Kerr County by the end of the week. But for grieving families, many of whom have lost children, frustration is building. The Camp Mystic leadership has called the loss “devastating” and asked for prayers — but others are asking harder questions.
“This wasn’t just a natural disaster,” said one parent. “We were failed — by silence, by unfilled jobs, by choices that saved money and cost lives.”
As the floodwaters recede, the search for answers — and accountability — has only begun.